Democrats on Edge as Trump Gains Ground in Tight Race

Two months ago, Kamala Harris celebrated her nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate at a lively national convention in Chicago. For many party loyalists, she represented a fresh hope, stepping in for an 81-year-old incumbent who seemed unlikely to defeat Donald Trump and secure another term.

However, even back then, senior party strategists expressed concerns that Democrats might be too confident about Harris’s chances. Now, with election day approaching, those worries seem justified.

While Harris initially enjoyed a surge in momentum and a significant bump in the polls compared to President Joe Biden—who trailed Trump by a considerable margin—it appears she primarily attracted voters who typically align with Democrats but were apprehensive about Biden’s age.

To win, Harris must reach beyond the traditional Democratic base while maintaining the fragile coalition that propelled Biden to victory in 2020. Recent polls indicate a tightening race, with results showing a virtual tie.

Trump’s Resurgence in Key States

A major concern for Democrats is Trump’s increasing support in crucial “blue wall” states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which offer Harris her clearest path to victory. Additionally, he has gained traction among Black and Latino voters.

Although the race is close in these key swing states, the poll numbers fall within the margin of error, meaning the results could be misleading.

In recent days, Harris’s rhetoric towards Trump has become markedly more severe. At the convention, she referred to him as an “unserious man” and called him “weird.” Now, however, she labels him a “fascist,” describing him as “increasingly unhinged and unstable.” Her original message of promoting “joy” has shifted to one of fear, warning voters about the dangerous implications of a second Trump term.

Polling suggests that while Harris may likely win the popular vote, she needs to secure key battleground states to triumph in the electoral college. However, during my recent travels through these states, it has become clear that many voters still harbor reservations about Harris. They feel they do not know enough about her.

Challenges in Michigan

Harris faces particular challenges in Michigan, which has the highest concentration of Arab-American voters in the U.S. Biden won the state in 2020 by just over 150,000 votes, but the Biden administration’s failure to address Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon has significantly impacted the party’s standing among the approximately 300,000 Arab-Americans living there. Harris, as Biden’s vice president, shares in that accountability.

At the Haraz coffee shop in Dearborn, a Middle Eastern-style café known for its Turkish coffee and pomegranate juice, I met a group of lifelong Democrats who would typically be out campaigning but are now deeply concerned about the direction of the party.